Are Polls and Probabilities Self-Fulfilling Prophecies?

Psychologists have long observed that people conform to majority opinion, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the “bandwagon effect.” In the political domain people learn about prevailing public opinion via ubiquitous polls, which may produce a bandwagon effect. Newer types of information—published probabilities derived from prediction market contract prices and
aggregated polls—may play a similar role. Consequently, polls and probabilities can become self-fulfilling prophecies whereby majorities, whether in support of candidates or policies, grow in a cascading manner. Despite increased attention to whether the measurement of public opinion can itself affect public opinion, the existing empirical literature is surprisingly limited on the bandwagon effects of polls and non-existent on the bandwagon effects of probabilities. To address this gap, we conducted an experiment on a diverse national sample in which we randomly assigned people to receive information about different levels of support (or probability of passage) for three public policies. We find that public opinion as expressed through polls significantly impacts individual-level attitudes whereas probabilities exhibit no effect. We also posit a mechanism underlying the bandwagon effect for polls: low public support decreases support for policies but high public support does not increase support